The recent surge in inflation is likely to get worse over the next several months, according to a survey Friday from the nation's top economists. 根据专业预测者调查，第一季度消费者价格通胀预计将达到 6%，而之前的调查为 2.7%。 The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multi-year highs in April. 根据美国顶级经济学家周五的一项调查，近期通胀飙升的情况可能在未来几个月内进一步恶化。 根据费城联邦储备银行每季度进行一次调查的专业预测机构调查显示，第一季度消费者价格通胀预计将达到 6%。 In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%.然而，就在美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击之前，这些敌对行动导致能源价格飙升，同时推动通胀数据远远超过美联储设定的 2% 目标。 For the full year, the panel put the CPI rate at 3.5% for the all-items number and 2.9% for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That's up from estimates of 2.6% for both in the prior survey. Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7% respectively. Still, the panel doesn't see the Fed hitting its goal well into the future. 10年预计年平均增长率为2.4%，调查指出，这相当于美联储首选标准个人消费支出价格指数（商务部衡量标准）的2.22%。 预计个人消费支出通胀率也将远高于美联储的舒适区，尽管没有劳工统计局汇编的消费者价格指数那么高。 Headline PCE inflation is projected at 4.5% for the second quarter with core at 3.4%, compared to prior estimates of 2.7%. The survey follows a slew of inflation data showing that prices paid both at the consumer and wholesale levels hit multiyear highs in April.总体CPI显示通胀率为3.8%，为近三年来的最高水平，而生产者价格年通胀率为6%，是2022年12月以来的峰值。 All of the data comes as Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Fed chair. Though Warsh has indicated he would like to see lower interest rates, that is going to be difficult to accomplish with inflation data so high and the general sentiment among his fellow policymakers to keep rates steady with an open mind toward possible rate hikes if inflation worsens. Elsewhere in the survey, forecasters lowered their outlook for growth in coming quarters. They expect gross domestic product to rise at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter and 2.2% for the full year, the latter down 0.3 percentage point from the prior estimate. Growth is projected to slow further to 1.9% in 2027 before bouncing back above 2% in subsequent years. The unemployment rate this year is expected to settle around 4.5%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the current level.